Padres Have Considered Luis Arrez Trad
The Padres seem to have a budget crunch and are considering all kinds of options for how to stop feeling the squeeze. It was this week that they have been exploring the po sibility of trading right-hander and now reports that they have discu sed trading infielder . reports that they have received inquires on Cease, Arrez and as well. It was this week that the club was probably going to have to drop its payroll commitments. They had a $169MM payroll in 2024 but currently projects them to be at $210MM next year. Its not known exactly where they need to wind up, but it should be somewhere in between those two numbers. Acees report from today suggests that Preller can be above $169MM but not by much. Trading prospects doesnt seem to be a strong consideration since the club has done a lot of that in recent years. The farm is still highlighted by and but all reports have suggested those two are fairly untouchable. Thats a tricky situation since the Friars need to upgrade at catcher, in an outfield corner and in the rotation. Doing so while also cutting spending is a difficult tightrope to walk. Its a similar situation to last winter, when the Padres also had to scale back the budget but had notable concerns about the pitching depth and outfield. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller somehow made it work by trading to the Yankees for a pile of pitchers, including and , with the latter then used to acquire Cease. They also moved shortstop prospect to center field, skipping him over Triple-A, and struck gold by signing for just $1MM. They ended up having a good season and getting back into the playoffs but now face another tough balancing act. Bogaerts, , , and are all making big money but Bogdan Bogdanovic Jersey those contracts are hard to move, both because the players are key parts of the roster and each has a full no-trade clause. Cease and Arrez, however, have no such protection and both are controlled for just one more season via arbitration. projects Arrez for a salary of $14.6MM next year and Cease for $13.7MM. That amount of money is perhaps a sweet spot. The players should have surplus value, meaning they would generate interest from other clubs, but the numbers are also big enough where a trade would reduce San Diegos payroll by a notable amount. It will be a delicate line for Preller to walk, especially with Cease. The rotation is already thin as it is, with Musgrove slated to mi s most or all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Theres a strong front three of Cease, King and Darvish but question marks after that. Moving Cease could save some money and bring back a return of some kind, but it would make the rotation depth even thinner. Getting would be ideal since hes very good and will be limited to a small signing bonus, but theres no guarantees there and it will be another month before theres clarity on the situation. One thing that could help is converting a reliever to a full-time starting role, as they did with King last year and before. relays that Preller has identified , and as candidates for such a move. of stretching out Morejn in October, though MLBTR readers were fairly split on the idea, with a slight majority favoring him staying in the bullpen. The argument for stretching him out is that he was once a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect before getting derailed by injuries. In 2024, he was healthy enough to avoid the IL all year, to sing 63 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.83 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate. The Padres could just keep him in that role since it worked for him but they could also view that healthy season as a springboard to a larger workload in 2025. Neither Hoeing nor Kolek had the same prospect pedigree as Morejn but both have largely worked in relief after coming up as starters in the minors. Hoeing to sed 53 2/3 innings in 2024 with a 2.18 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate. Kolek to sed 46 2/3 innings with a 5.21 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate. Any of the three would be far cheaper than Cease. Hoeing and Kolek are still in their pre-arbitration years. Morejns injuries have limited him to modest $1.8MM projection for next year even though he has more than four years of service time. That price point is attractive but theres obviously big risk in flipping an established starter like Cease and hoping for these guys to slot in for him. With Arrez, its a bit easier to see the logic. Without him, the club could have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts and from left to right. Finding a pa sable first baseman for le s than what Arrez is slated to make is more plausible than replacing Cease with a pitcher of similar quality. They could flip Arrez for whatever clubs are willing to offer in return, then theoretically sign someone like , or for le s money. But on the other hand, the teams interested in Arrez could also look to those options as reasons to not give up much in trade. Despite winning three straight batting titles, Arrez is a fairly limited player since hes not a strong defender, doesnt walk much and doesnt provide power. Hes certainly useful but Acee suggests Cease is more likely to move because the prices on starting pitching have been aggre sive this winter, meaning he would have more interest than Arrez despite having e sentially the same projected salary. The Bogaerts po sibility in interesting but the least likely of the three to come together. As mentioned, he has a full no-trade clause and would have to approve any deal. Hes also set to make $25MM annually for another nine years, leaving $225MM left on his deal. Heyman suggests that the strong spending this winter makes the deal look more attractive than before, but thats still an underwater deal. Bogaerts is three years older than , who just got a guarantee of $182MM from the Giants. Hes also coming off a down year in which he mi sed time due to injury and slashed .264/.307/.381 for a 95 wRC+. His shortstop defense has also been questionable enough that the Padres moved him to second base in deference to , though he did retake the position late in the year when Kim was hurt. Even if the Padres found a taker for Bogaerts, it would create a shortstop vacancy and add another item to the to-do list. Re-signing Kim is theoretically po sible but hes still recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be a factor in the first half of the season. The free agent market doesnt have any more clear-cut everyday options. Speculatively speaking, its a bit easier to see this kind of thing with Cronenworth, who had been in trade rumors in the past. Going into 2023, he and the Padres agreed to a seven-year, $80MM extension for the 2024-30 seasons. He then had a down year in 2023 and the Friars looked into moving him during last winters budget crunch but didnt get anything done. He bounced back with a .241/.324/.390 showing in 2024 for a 105 wRC+, much better than his .229/.312/.378 line and 91 wRC+ in 2023. He is still owed $71MM over the next six years but thats le s than a third of the money left on the Bogaerts deal. Cronenworth is also a bit younger, turning 31 in January. Trading him would open a hole at second base for the Friars, unle s they are willing to play Arrez there, but free agency features , , and other po sible replacements. There are many factors for Preller to balance as he puts together next years club, but its at least a position hes familiar with. Naturally, how he proceeds will depend on what other clubs are offering for Cease or Arrez or other players, but it will interesting to see him juggle all the different elements. Cory Joseph Jersey
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